Saturday, July 11, 2009

Weather Update Dissemination for Bacolod City

12:00 NN, July 2009
(1) New Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA) forming over the Philippine Sea...located near lat 16.6N lon 130.0E...or about 810 km East of Northern Luzon...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...currently almost stationary and embedded within the Monsoon Trough (ITCZ).

(2) New Tropical Disturbance 91W (LPA) forming over the Caroline Islands...located near lat 7.1N lon 141.7E...or about 1,655 km East of Mindanao or 795 km East of Palau Island...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...currently drifting West to WNW slowly and is currently embedded within the eastern extent of the Monsoon Trough (ITCZ).

These systems will be closely monitored for possible development into Significant Tropical Cyclones within the next 2 to 3 days. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.

6:00a.m., 11 July2009
Tropical Depression 05W (GORIO) accelerates...exits threatens Southwestern China particularly Leizhou Peninsula and Northern part of Hainan Island.

Forecast Outlook: 05W is expected to become a weak tropical storm today and shall continue moving towards the West or WNW. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows 05W making landfall off Leizhou Peninsula by tomorrow afternoon and shall weaken rapidly into a disturbance as it moves overland across the China-Vietnam boundary by early Monday morning July 13. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's a possibility that NANGKA shall track more to the North and pass over Metro Manila tonight. This scenario is likely if the High Pressure Ridge off Northern Luzon weakens and allow NANGKA to move up.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK. Cloudy skies w/ light to moderate occasional rains & some passing thunderstorms w/ squalls plus light to moderate SW winds not exceeding 35 kph can be expected over the following affected areas: PALAWAN, WESTERN VISAYAS & PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BICOL AND EASTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.+

Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA) has become stronger and is now considered an active one as it entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...located near lat 10.1N lon 134.1E...or about 965 km ESE of Borongan, Eastern Samar or 1,250 km ESE of Metro Naga (CWC)...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...currently moving WNW @ 19 kph towards Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region.

Flooding over the hazard risk areas of Cagayan is likely during the next 6 to 12 hours.
At 8:54 AM this morning, The Weather Station recorded wind gust of 48 kph coming from the NE. Total rainfall accumulation of 103.6 mm. has been measured beginning 12AM to 3PM May 1...Barometer is at 1006.3 hectopascals (hPa).

This system will be closely monitored for possible development into significant Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours. It is then expected to bring widespread rains across Northern Mindanao, Visayas and the Bicol Region this weekend.

T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sat July 11 2009
Location of Center: 19.6º N Lat 116.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 370 km (200 nm) SE of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 395 km (213 nm) SE of Macau
Distance 3: 490 km (265 nm) WNW of Laoag City
Distance 4: 620 km (335 nm) ESE of Haikou, Hainan Is.
Distance 5: 625 km (337 nm) ESE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 6: 120 km (65 nm) SSW of Metro Manila
Distance 7: 135 km (73 nm) South of Subic/Olongapo City
Distance 8: 290 km (157 nm) West of Metro Naga/CWC-->
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph
Coastal Storm Surge Height
Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 28 kph (15 kts)
General Direction: Leizhou-Hainan Area
Size (in Diameter): 300 km
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
Source: T2K