T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005:
As of 6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Tue 05 May 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #006 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM (02W/Pre-EMONG) gaining strength over the warm waters of the South China Sea...now drifting NNE. La Union, Pangasinan down to Metro Manila are likely to be the Areas of Projected Impact, as shown on various Numerical Computer Forecast Models.
CHAN-HOM is expected to move NNE to NE-ward for the next 24 hours before entering the western part of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on early Thursday morning May 7 as a 120-km/hr Category 1 Typhoon.
The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows CHAN-HOM turning more to the ENE and accelerating closer to the coast of Western Luzon. CHAN-HOM shall make landfall either over Pangasinan, Zambales or Metro Manila in Western Luzon sometime Friday afternoon May 8.
These window of projected paths are based on the majority of computer models but changes are still possible as the storm is still 3-days away from impact.
CHAN-HOM's circulation continues to grow larger and improve. This storm is not yet affecting any part of Western Luzon as of this time, however, its outermost rainbands is expected to reach the area late tomorrow or early Thursday morning.
1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm is possible along its rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of TS CHAN-HOM.
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Tue May 05 2009
Location of Center: 12.1º N Lat 112.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 240 km (130 nm) WNW of Pagasa Is., Spratly Is
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NNE @ 05 kph (03 kts)
General Direction: Western LuzonSize (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)